Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

674
FXUS62 KGSP 260435
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1235 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another hot and humid day today, thanks to a large upper ridge
over the area. The ridge gradually weakens, allowing temperatures
to get closer to normal by the weekend. A disturbance meandering
over the Deep South will yield scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms each day, especially during the afternoon and evening
hours. A weak cold front reaches our region by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1240 AM EDT Thursday: Main change needed was tweaks to PoPs
and thunder chances through the next few hours based on the latest
KGSP radar loops. Otherwise, went ahead and let the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch expire as most of the area has been overworked
from prior activity. Cannot entirely rule out an isolated strong,
sub-severe storm across Davie, Iredell, and Rowan Counties but
confidence is low as activity has been quickly falling apart once it
pushes across these zones. Mountain valley fog will once again be
possible, especially in the Little Tennessee Valley. With all the
rain that fell yesterday and light to calm winds through daybreak,
patchy fog and/or low stratus may develop elsewhere but confidence
is low.

The upper low associated with a Tropical Upper Tropo-spheric Trough
will slide across Florida with broad upper ridging extending over
the Mid-Atlantic today. Temperatures will start off cooler this
morning compared to yesterday. Less influence from the upper ridge
will also help keep high temps a few degrees cooler as well.
Regardless, highs will once again reach the low to mid 90s outside
the mtns. A moist boundary layer will keep dewpts in the low to mid
70s with the greatest combination of hot temperatures and increased
moisture along the I-77 Corridor in the Charlotte metro area. As
such, another Heat Advisory will be in effect this aftn/evening
along and east of I-77. Another round of diurnally driven convection
is also expected but coverage and intensity should be less than we
saw yesterday. Fcst soundings are still supportive of a few strong
to svr storms with wet microbursts being the main hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday: The upper ridge will continue to weaken
and retreat off the eastern seaboard in response to the approach
of a mid-latitude trough from the Great Lakes/Midwest. The cutoff
low over FL is stalled underneath the ridge, but it will start to
drift slowly northward Thursday night as the rex block breaks down
and the low interacts with the upstream trough.

The pattern will remain unsettled with showers and storms expected
each day. Coverage should be enhanced with an upper diffluent
pattern in between the FL low and mid-latitude trough. Additionally,
terrain circulations and a lee trough will provide low-level focus
for convection both days. Rain chances are accordingly high in
the mountains and foothills (likely PoP), tapering to chance PoPs
in the eastern piedmont. Weak shear profiles and a more moderate
level of instability will limit the severe thunderstorm risk,
the environment will continue to support strong wet microbursts
during peak heating.  SPC has included the area in a marginal risk
on Friday accordingly.  Additionally, with very weak steering flow
below 500 mb, storm motion will be slow, yielding a very local
threat of heavy rainfall and flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday: The upper low will continue to meander
over the Deep South through the end of the weekend. A stronger
mid-latitude trough will eventually progress eastward, allowing a
cold front to reach the area by the early to mid portion of next
week (there are some timing differences for the front`s arrival but
Tuesday appears most likely). This will result in the continuation
of a wet weather pattern with diurnally-driven showers and storms
Sunday and Monday.  Precipitation coverage looks highest on Tuesday
with the front. An uptick in the threat for severe thunderstorm
and heavy rainfall/flooding is anticipated as well.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: After midnight, conditions should be
mostly quiet thru the morning. Mtn valley fog will once again be
likely in the Little TN Valley and may develop at KAVL. As
such, I included some MVFR visby at KAVL beginning overnight,
but they could certainly end up going lower. Otherwise, another
round of sct afternoon/evening convection is expected tomorrow,
but coverage and intensity shouldn`t be as much as today. Winds
will be light and VRB thru most of the taf period.

Outlook: Daily chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunder-
storms continue into the weekend. Fog and/or low stratus will be
possible each morning in the usual mtn valleys as well as near lakes
and rivers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 06-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      96 1948     65 1961     69 1952     49 1984
                                                    1974
   KCLT     102 1952     68 1965     78 1948     55 1979
   KGSP     100 1952     71 1991     77 1952     55 1979
                1934                                1974
                1914

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...GSP