Monroe, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

798
FXUS62 KGSP 251815
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
215 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Oppressive heat and humidity build through the weekend and into the
first half of next week, with dangerous heat index values possible
especially Sunday through midweek.  Afternoon showers and storms may
develop over the NC mountains, but will remain isolated for the
remainder of our area.  A cold front is expected to slowly cross our
area from the north Thursday and Friday bringing more showers and
storms and temperatures closer to normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 pm EDT Friday: An upper anticyclone centered near the South
Carolina coast this afternoon will gradually retrograde to near the
center of the state by the end of the period. This will result in
hot conditions through the period. Isolated convection...almost
exclusively showers so far...has developed across the forecast
area this afternoon. The effects of deep mixing is beginning to
be seen in surface obs and visible satellite imagery east of the
mountains...as surface dewpoints have begun mixing out into the
upper 60s, while formerly agitated cumulus is becoming increasingly
flat. As such, while a few showers have popped across the Piedmont
so far...expect coverage to be insufficient to warrant anything more
than 10 PoPs across the Piedmont, while widely scattered activity
is expected to remain confined to the mountains. Any convection is
expected to dissipate fairly quickly after sunset. Min temps are
expected to be around 5 degrees above normal, with fog/low stratus
expected to be confined to the most favored mountain valleys.

Saturday will be even hotter as the center of the anticyclone
settles very close to the CWA. While deep mixing is again
expected during the afternoon, air temperatures in the upper 90s
are expected to yield heat index values of 104-107 across much
of the Piedmont...and a Heat Advisory will be issued for these
areas. Unsurprisingly, forecast soundings look a bit more suppressed
for convective development Sat afternoon, which will further limit
the coverage of diurnal showers and storms. Mentionable PoPs are
limited to the mountains and NC foothills, with chances primarily in
the 20-40% range. Chances for severe convection are virtually non-
existent through the period, but can`t rule out a brief severe
updraft pulse associated with any cell mergers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1:45 PM EDT Friday: The short-term fcst picks up at 00z on
Sunday with broad upper ridging in place across most of the CONUS.
Over the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to amplify and
gradually shift westward with it centered over the central CONUS
by the end of the period late Monday. At the sfc, the Bermuda High
will be back in control of our pattern as the period begins. Little
change wrt the large-scale pattern is expected on Sunday, with weak
sfc winds over our area and below climo chances for diurnal convec-
tion during the aftn/evening. On Monday, a weak backdoor frontal
boundary appears to move southward thru our area as low pressure
tries to organize off the Atlantic Coast. This boundary will have
little impact on our temperatures, but will likely keep low-level
winds out of the north for much of the day. It will also increase
our chances for more sct to widespread convection, especially over
the NC mtns. As for the severe potential, it still appears minimal
at best both days. The main hazard will be the hot temperatures,
with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s across most of our non-
mtn zones. Even with some amount of daytime mixing, afternoon heat
index values are expected to reach Heat Advisory criteria across much
of the Upstate and Piedmont, with some of our southernmost zones and
portions of the I-77 Corridor reaching Heat Warning criteria both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1:25 PM EDT Friday: The extended fcst picks up at 00z on
Tuesday with broad upper ridging centered over the central CONUS
and covering much of the CONUS. Over the next few days, broad
upper trofing will dig southward over eastern Canada acting to
suppress the ridge over the eastern CONUS. By the end of the
period late next week, the trof axis is expected to be centered
over the Eastern Seaboard or just offshore. At the sfc, broad,
weak high pressure will still be in place across the Southeast
as we start the period. Over the next couple of days, the large-
scale pattern is not expected to change much with high pressure
lingering and light/vrb sfc winds across our area. Towards the
end of the period late next week, most of the long-range guidance
has the sfc high getting reinforced from the NW while a weak sfc
low tries to spin up over our area and then lift NE. As for the
sensible wx, excessive heat continues to be the main theme with
triple digit highs across the Piedmont, 90s in some mtn valleys,
and well-above normal overnight/morning lows. As alluded to in
the previous discussion, we`ll have to take it day by day wrt
Heat Advisories and/or Warnings. It will largely depend on how
much the dewpoints mix out each day under the weak subsidence.
Expect diurnal convective coverage to increase towards the end
of the period, but severe potential still appears minimal thru
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated convection has developed throughout
the Terminal Forecast Area this afternoon within moderately
unstable air mass. Convection has been almost exclusively showers
so far, but the thunderstorm potential will increase through
late afternoon. Having said that, coverage is expected to remain
largely isolated...and we have generally omitted a mention of
convection this afternoon/evening. An exception is at KAVL, where a
shower is about to move over the terminal as of the time of this
discussion. Also included a VCSH at KCLT early in the period,
as satellite imagery indicates the cumulus field in the vicinity
of the airfield appears conducive for SHRA development in the very
near term. Fog/low stratus are possible in the mountain valleys by
daybreak Saturday...with 5SM/FEW005 forecast at KAVL btw 11-13Z,
but the higher chances for IFR or worse conditions are expected
to be confined to the valleys west of KAVL. Otherwise, VFR is
forecast to prevail through this period. Winds will generally be
SW at 5-10 kts through this afternoon, becoming light/vrbl tonight.

Outlook: Very typical mid-summer weather is expected through at
least the middle of next week, with scattered diurnal convection,
mainly over the mountains, with only isolated, stray convection
in the Piedmont.  Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each
morning...mainly in the mtn valleys.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-26

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      94 1949     72 1911     71 2012     49 1911
                1940                    2010
   KCLT     100 2005     74 1920     76 1992     60 1904
                1940                    1940
                1914                    1936
   KGSP      99 2010     76 1920     76 2022     53 1911
                1995                    2005
                1987                    1940



RECORDS FOR 07-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      97 1952     70 1946     72 1936     48 1911
                                        1925
   KCLT     103 1940     74 1926     76 2022     57 1920
                                        2016
                                        1944
   KGSP     103 1940     70 1946     75 2012     54 1911
                                        1944



RECORDS FOR 07-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      98 1952     68 1890     70 2010     53 1895
                                        1878
                                        1877
   KCLT     102 1952     70 1890     78 2016     54 1962
   KGSP     103 1952     72 1926     76 2016     60 1911
                                        1936        1904



RECORDS FOR 07-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      98 1952     67 1984     74 1877     55 1911
                                                    1895
   KCLT     103 1952     72 1984     77 1993     59 1920
   KGSP     104 1952     70 1984     76 1949     59 1911
                                        1936



RECORDS FOR 07-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1954     68 1936     72 2011     54 2014
                                        1878        1897
                                                    1895
   KCLT     101 2011     71 1981     77 1953     58 1914
                                        1941
   KGSP     101 1999     73 1981     77 2011     60 1914
                                                    1911
                                                    1884



RECORDS FOR 07-31

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      95 1999     65 1936     71 2011     53 1986
                                                    1914
   KCLT     100 1999     69 1936     77 1941     56 1914
                1931                    1931
                1915
   KGSP     104 1999     71 2014     78 1999     56 1936
                                        1931

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ028-029.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ036-037-
     056-057-069>072-082.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ009>014-
     019-107-109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...GSP